SANDAG Reboot

SANDAG Reboot

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• View Appendix C [PDF]
• View our lunch and learn presentation

Introduction

SANDAG’s Regional Plan is a document that outlines the agency’s expectations for funding, building, and operating transportation projects for the next three decades. This summary analysis was undertaken primarily by comparing the list of projects and phasing of the Regional Plan adopted in 2015^[1] with the Draft Regional Plan published in May 2021.^[2] While it is likely that the final version of the 2021 Regional Plan will differ somewhat from the draft version released in May 2021, the May draft is a statement about SANDAG’s priorities and values, prior to public review.

The list of projects funded by each of the two plans are collected from the “Appendix A” sections of each of those two plans. Additional information came from other parts of the Regional Plans and their appendices. Circulate also consulted with advocates and SANDAG staff. SANDAG staff shared certain additional materials when requested by Circulate.

Direct comparisons between funding amounts in the Regional Plans can be challenging. The 2015 Plan relies primarily on year of expenditure dollars, while also using 2014 dollars. The 2021 Plan uses only 2020 dollars for individual project expenditures. This makes apples-to-apples spending comparisons difficult for individual projects.

Published along with his report is our own “SANDAG Reboot Appendix A”, which is a spreadsheet compiled from information contained in the Appendix A for each of the 2015 and 2021 Plans. It contains information and comparisons regarding funding of project categories, individual projects and costs, phasing, and frequency enhancement phasing. “SANDAG Reboot Appendix B” is a document showing SANDAG’s proposed phasing of transit projects and local bus route frequencies. “SANDAG Reboot Appendix C” is a document showing phased funding for SANDAG’s proposed supporting programs and policies.^[3]

Expenditure Overview

The 2021 Plan allocates approximately the same percentage of funding to highways (including managed lanes), transit, and active transportation as the 2015 Plan.^[4] From 2021-2035, the 2015 Plan allocates 27.2% of total funding to highways and managed lanes,^[5] while the 2021 Plan allocates 25.7% of funding to the same category.^[6] For the same period, the transit funding^[7] allocation in the 2015 Plan is 46.4%, while the 2021 Plan has 43.1%. The active transportation funding^[8] allocation in the 2015 Plan is 2.9%, while the allocation in the 2021 Plan is actually lower at 2.3%.^[9]

One major difference between the plans is the funding allocation for programs. From 2021-2035, the 2021 Plan allocates 7.6% of funding to programs, while the 2015 Plan allocated only 2.9% of funding to programs. New programs are explained later in this report.

From 2021-2035, the 2015 Plan allocates 14.3% of funding to local streets and roads, while the 2021 Plan allocates only 9.2%. The 2021 Plan allocates 6.4% of funding to Mobility Hubs, 1.0% of funding to flexible fleets, and 1.1% of funding to airport connectivity during that period. Those categories do not exist in the 2015 Plan.^[10]

The 2021 Plan includes more overall funding for the 2021-2035 period than the 2015 Plan. In YOE dollars, for the 2021-2035 period, the 2021 Plan allocates $89.4 billion, while the 2015 Plan allocated $60 billion. For the period 2036-2050, the 2021 Plan allocates $147.2 billion, and the 2015 Plan allocated $128.3 billion.^[11]

Revenue Overview

Like the 2015 Plan, the 2021 Plan incorporates a variety of local, state, and federal revenues. In addition, funding for the 2021 plan depends on both an $11.5 billion MTS ballot measure, a $16.3 billion SANDAG ballot measure, and $22 billion in FasTrak revenues based on the buildout of a Managed Lane network.^[12] These revenues have their own political challenges, but they are similar qualitatively to revenues projected in the 2015 Plan.

One of the key differences with the 2021 Plan is that it relies on a substantial amount of new revenues from road charges. The 2021 Plan predicts $27.7 billion in revenue from state road use charges, and an additional $27.7 billion from local road use charges.^[13] The 2015 Plan assumed that a road use charge would generate $10.7 billion in total revenue, with a base year of 2020.^[14] The road use charge was not enacted in 2020. The new plan has pushed off the road use charge by six years, and assumed that it would generate almost six times as much revenue as was predicted in the 2015 Plan.

It is unlikely that SANDAG currently has the legal authority to enact a local road use charge. SANDAG was created by state statute, and is specifically authorized to enact sales taxes to generate revenue for transportation projects.^[15] It does not have specific authority to enact any other kind of tax. A local road use charge would likely require statutory authorization from the California legislature.

Road use charges are also particularly divisive. Only 45 percent of respondents to a national survey favored using road charges, with 49 percent favoring green road charges.^[16] Respondents concerned about privacy were particularly unlikely to support the tax, which would likely require tracking mileage of drivers.^[17]

Many of the most ambitious transit expenditures in the 2021 Plan rely on the road charge to be feasible. This is especially true for the flagship commuter rail projects slated for the final years of the 2021 Plan. There is a significant possibility that this scale of road use charge revenues will not materialize, and SANDAG will be forced to abandon or scale back its flagship projects.

Proposed Expenditures

I. Bus and Rail Upgrades

Frequency is an important and often overlooked facet of a transit system. Higher frequencies allow transit riders to count on transit without needing to schedule their day around what time their bus or train will arrive. In addition, frequency upgrades decrease wait times for transfers, thereby decreasing total travel time.^[18] Frequency and overall speed of trips are the highest priorities of local transit riders, above and beyond cost, parking availability, or proximity to stations.^[19] Following the stated preferences of actual transit riders, Circulate San Diego has advocated for frequency enhancements to be a priority in SANDAG’s plans.^[20]

Before the end of 2025, more than two thirds of all local bus routes are proposed to receive a frequency upgrade.^[21] Many of these frequency improvements were scheduled to occur later in the 2015 Plan. In addition, five new local routes will be created. Six of the eleven existing Rapid bus routes will receive frequency upgrades, three new Rapid bus routes will be created, and local bus Route 10 will be converted into a Rapid bus route.^[22] In addition, the Coaster will upgrade to 30-minute peak frequencies and 60-minute off peak frequencies, and be extended to the Convention Center.^[23]

In the next phase of the plan ending in 2035, an additional ten bus routes will receive capital improvements or frequency upgrades. This is different from the 2015 Plan, which would have created fifteen new Rapid bus lines.^[24] More than one quarter of existing local bus routes will receive a frequency upgrade in 2035.^[25] All light rail lines will receive capital improvements including some double/third tracking and grade separations. In 2035, all Trolley lines are set to run every 7.5 minutes, whereas most run at only 15-minute frequencies currently. In addition, the Sprinter and the Coaster will receive frequency upgrades. The northern segment of the Purple Line, from National City to Sorrento Mesa, will be completed, and run at 10-minute frequencies.^[26]

The 2015 Plan included three streetcar lines and a Blue Line Trolley extension to connect to the Coaster at UTC in 2035. The 2021 Plan instead includes a single streetcar line and a tunnel project to connect the Blue Line Trolley to the Coaster, both phased for 2050. The 2021 Plan includes an automated people mover to connect the Central Mobility Hub to the Airport, and a military ferry between Coronado and San Diego in 2035.^[27]

II. The Managed Lane Network

Little public attention has been paid so far to the 2021 Plan’s proposed use of managed lanes. However, they represent a major shift in thinking by SANDAG. If implemented, they would facilitate a robust freeway-based bus transit system.

Managed lanes are highway lanes reserved for transit and cars that pay a toll. In general, the 2021 Plan shifts away from highway expansions towards managed lanes as compared to the 2015 Plan. Where the 2015 Plan included plans to create managed lanes as additions to the existing highway lanes, the 2021 Plan would create many of those same managed lanes by converting existing general-purpose highway lanes. For instance, the 2015 Plan had much of the I-5 slated to change from eight general purpose lanes to eight or ten general purpose highway lanes, plus two or four managed lanes, depending on the section. The 2021 Plan instead converts much of the I-5 from eight general purpose highway lanes to six general purpose lanes and four managed lanes.^[28]

The elimination of new general purpose lanes appears to produce significant cost savings. However, those cost savings drop out with the construction of numerous managed lane connectors that were not contained in the 2015 Plan. The 2021 Plan proposes $7.76 billion (2020 dollars) worth of managed lane connectors, where the 2015 Plan proposed only $897 million (2014 dollars) for the same category. Managed lane connectors join the managed lanes on intersecting freeways or highways. The network of managed lanes is planned to generate toll revenue and allow busses to travel more quickly.^[29]

The concept of converting general purpose lanes into a form of managed lane, or into a lane that prioritizes transit is not new.^[30] Transit advocacy organizations like Circulate San Diego generally support these ideas. However, general purpose lane conversions have a limited history in the United States, and have the potential to draw substantial public opposition.^[31] A massive program to convert general purpose lanes would be unprecedented, and it would certainly be a benefit for transit. It remains unclear how realistic such a proposal can be.

III. The Purple Line

The Purple Line of the 2021 Plan is significantly more ambitious than the version contained in the 2015 Plan. It would no longer be a new trolley line, but a commuter rail with higher speeds and at a much higher cost.

The 2015 Plan estimated the cost of Phase 1 of the Purple Line at $2.33 billion, and Phase 2 at $0.63 billion in 2014 dollars, while the 2020 Plan estimated Phase 1 of the Purple Line at $12.66 billion for Phase 1 and $2.98 billion for Phase 2 in 2020 dollars. Adjusting for inflation to 2020 dollars, the entire project is estimated at $3.31 billion in the 2015 Plan, and is estimated at $15.64 billion in the 2021 Plan.^[32]

This increase in cost is the result of several factors. The new Purple Line will be constructed as a heavy rail project, rather than light rail. Moreover, the Purple Line is planned to be routed through neighborhoods, rather than near existing freeways. ^[33] This will result in increased land acquisition costs, and likely require tunneling or elevated rail construction.

These expenses will likely result in a significantly more robust transit line than was part of the 2015 Plan. Heavy rail allows higher capacity, faster trains that can result in lower travel times for some riders. Although this will come at the cost of fewer stops, making the service less convenient to as many locations. Overall travel times may be higher for some that require taking a bus, bicycle, or other mode to access one of the fewer transit stations. Moving the transit line away from the highways will allow the new Purple Line to locate its stations closer to where people live and work, resolving some last mile problems. As imagined, SANDAG projects that the new Purple Line would achieve more ridership.

IV. Central Mobility Hub and Airport Connector

The Central Mobility Hub and related Airport Connector are big-ticket items. The Central Mobility Hub is conceptualized as a large building in which transit riders will be able to access micromobility, rideshare, a variety of busses and transit lines, and a connection (Airport Connector) to the San Diego International Airport (Airport).^[34] However, the new Central Mobility Hub would not connect to any new rail lines other than the proposed Airport Connector until at least 2050.^[35]

The Airport Connector is a proposed people mover that would travel from the Central Mobility Hub to the Airport.^[36] The current proposed routing of the Airport Connector would require transit users coming from south of the Airport to travel an additional 1.5 miles north past the airport to the Central Mobility Hub, before doubling back to reach the Airport. This process would add an extra three miles to those trips. This routing would negatively impact most transit riders, who live south of the Airport. Circulate San Diego previously outlined these concerns in a scoping letter for the Environmental Impact Report for the proposed Central Mobility Hub,^[37] and in a scoping letter for the Environmental Impact Statement for the Navy’s proposed NAVWAR site redevelopment.^[38]

The Draft 2021 Plan includes a line item for Central Mobility Hub Land Acquisition at $2.42 billion (2020 dollars). SANDAG represented to Circulate staff that this line item is actually intended to represent all construction costs for the project. With such a budget, there are presumably a variety of locations that SANDAG could choose for the Central Mobility Hub. In addition, a more efficient routing for the Airport Connector would likely reduce its $1.40 billion (2020 dollars) price tag. Of note, the construction cost of the Central Mobility Hub itself is not listed within the 2021 Plan, though conceptual renderings suggest a large price tag.^[39] In addition to the Airport Connector, there is $836 million (2020 dollars) for Airport road connectivity phased for 2035.^[40] Elsewhere, SANDAG has estimated that the entire cost of a Central Mobility Hub, and it’s associated projects, would cost up to $4.7 billion.^[41]

V. Supporting Programs and Policies

The 2021 Plan proposes a variety of Supporting Policies and Programs. Each of these programs are detailed in “SANDAG Reboot Appendix C.”^[42] By 2035, SANDAG plans to spend $462 million on Land Use and Regional Growth, $2.13 billion on an Affordable Housing Grant Program, $300 million on Climate Action Planning, $1.33 billion on Electric Vehicles and related infrastructure, $108 million on Parking and Curb Management, $287 million on Transportation Demand Management.

Earlier this year, Circulate San Diego organized a coalition to advocate for SANDAG to include funding and a commitment for Vision Zero.^[43] SANDAG responded to that request by including $235 million for Vision Zero.

Notably, from the present to 2035, the 2021 Plan contemplates spending almost twice as much on incentives for zero-emission cars as it does on zero emissions buses and infrastructure. In addition, the plan will spend 30 times more on incentives for zero emission cars as it does on e-bike incentives.

VI. Commuter Rail in 2050

Much of the media attention for the 2021 Plan has revolved around its vision of a network of commuter rail. However, it is important to understand that most of these projects are scheduled to be built toward the end of the plan, in 2050. Many future updates to SANDAG’s Regional Plan will occur between 2021 and when these new projects would be funded, designed, and constructed.

The commuter rail network would include a Purple Line rail from the San Ysidro Port of Entry connecting via Mid-City to Sorrento Valley, another line connecting from El Cajon to Old Town via Hillcrest, North Park, and City Heights, and a further line connecting Old Town to San Ysidro via Downtown. The 2021 Plan also proposes Sorrento Mesa and UTC tunnels, and a tram connecting Downtown, Logan Heights, Golden Hill, North Park, and Hillcrest. Of these, only the Purple Line would be even partially completed by 2035.^[44]

Changes in population, land use patterns, construction costs, and technologies will undoubtedly necessitate some changes in the commuter rail proposals before construction were to start. Most importantly, these projects are slated to be funded by road use charges that SANDAG currently does not have legal authority to collect. While long-term planning is important, these projects and their funding sources are more speculative than definitive.

Conclusion

SANDAG’s 2021 Plan will create some immediate and modest improvements to public transit and mobility. When the plan is adopted, existing resources will be spent on frequency improvements to current transit lines as soon as 2025. These improvements will happen faster than was proposed in the 2015 Plan.

By 2035, additional improvements are planned, including bus and rail frequency upgrades, the Purple Line, the Central Mobility Hub, and a network of freeway managed lanes. Even these projects will be subject to change or elimination based on their politics and popularity, and the availability of funding from future ballot measures. Although much of the media attention for the 2021 Plan has focused on the proposed commuter rail network, most of these projects are not scheduled to be completed until 2050.

All in all, SANDAG’s 2021 Regional Plan is an improvement on its 2015 effort. It reflects a welcome change of priorities for the agency and the region. Unfortunately, the plan relies on very large hoped-for revenues from road use charges that do not currently exist. These charges are politically fraught, and SANDAG currently lacks the authority to implement them. By relying so heavily on these revenues, SANDAG risks not being able to deliver what it promises.

Acknowledgments

Primary Author Jesse O’Sullivan Policy Counsel, Circulate San Diego

Jesse is policy counsel for Circulate San Diego, where he researches and advocates for land use and transportation policy solutions for a more affordable and sustainable San Diego.

Prior to working at Circulate, Jesse practiced law for over a year as a litigator on a variety of matters. He also externed for the Honorable M. Margaret McKeown for the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, and for the Honorable Gonzalo P. Curiel for the Southern District of California. He graduated from the University of San Diego with a Bachelor's degree in sociology, and earned his Juris Doctor at the University of San Diego School of Law. During law school, Jesse was a member of the San Diego Law Review and his comment, Increasing the Effectiveness of California's Density Bonus Law, was published in The Real Estate Law Journal.

Editor & Co-Author Colin Parent Executive Director and General Counsel, Circulate San Diego

Colin Parent is Executive Director and General Counsel at Circulate San Diego. He has authored a number of reports and academic publications detailing how local land use and transportation policy can be improved to advance equity, promote economic development, and to address climate change.

Colin served on the Jerry Brown for Governor 2010 campaign, and was appointed by Governor Brown as the Director of External Affairs for the California Department of Housing and Community Development. Prior to working for Governor Brown, Colin practiced law for three years as a commercial litigator at DLA Piper US LLP. During 2013- 2014, Colin served as the Director of Policy at the San Diego Housing Commission. He is also an elected member of the City Council of La Mesa, California.

Special Thanks

A special thank you goes to Hunter Collins, Circulate’s legal intern, who conducted research and helped to create the dataset on which this report is based. Thanks to our working group, which helped guide the direction of the report. Working group members include:

• Matt Stucky
• Clint Daniels
• Noah Harris
• Jacob Mandel
• Randy Torres-Van Vleck

Thanks to Morgen Ruby for designing this report