Vision Zero at Ten Years

Vision Zero at Ten Years

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Executive Summary

In 2015, Circulate helped push the City of San Diego to adopt Vision Zero – committing to eliminate non-motorist traffic deaths by 2025. This has resulted in much needed, partially successful, reforms to the City’s transportation planning structure. Yet by any measure, more pedestrians and cyclists are being killed in crashes on San Diego’s streets than ten years ago.

The report examines fatality trends from 2012 to 2023, using data from all levels of government, federal, state and local. With very little variance, they all tell the same story: pedestrian deaths in San Diego have increased.

This reflects a broader national increase, driven by factors like larger vehicle use, high-speed incidents, and insufficient street lighting. San Diego's proactive measures such as traffic calming and increased crosswalk visibility, have not been enough to counteract that national trend.

Even so, since adopting Vision Zero, San Diego has made commendable strides toward improving road safety, implementing a range of measures designed to protect pedestrians, cyclists, and drivers. Key efforts include adopting a Complete Streets policy, applying a Safe Systems approach, and implementing quick-build projects to improve pedestrian safety. Circulate recommends continuing to implement these good ideas.

But this new approach, while praiseworthy, has not ripened into enough fully implemented safety measures to decrease deaths. It has fallen far short of the commitment to bring the deaths to zero.

Therefore, while this report praises the city for its promising gains in planning. Circulate and its Vision Zero allies call on the City to implement its plans with the urgency and commitment this safety crisis demands. The report’s recommendations focus on reducing costs, speeding processes, implementing fair traffic enforcement techniques, and dramatically increasing resources dedicated to this problem.

Ultimately, Vision Zero has been a major step forward. But by itself, a vision is not enough. When an admirable vision is only partially implemented, the good intentions behind it start to lose credibility. And worse yet, our fellow San Diegans continue to die on our streets. We can do better.

In 2015, San Diego Committed to Vision Zero

On June 22, 2015, Circulate San Diego published “Vision Zero San Diego,”[i] calling on the City of San Diego to reduce traffic deaths to zero and recommending the following actions:

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  • Create a strategy for funding safe street design.
  • Reduce dangerous speeding by building traffic calming projects.
  • Adopt a Complete Streets policy.
  • Simplify the process to implement neighborhood-initiated projects.
  • Launch an education campaign for safer streets.
  • Work with the San Diego Police Department to increase enforcement of safe street behavior.
  • Establish a Vision Zero Advisory Committee to guide program implementation[ii].

On that same day in 2015, Mayor Kevin Faulconer announced his support for San Diego to adopt the Vision Zero initiative.[iii]

In 2020, the City of San Diego published an update to its Vision Zero Strategic Plan for 2020-2025. The 2020 plan shifted the City's original Vision Zero approach to a "Safe Systems" model, which acknowledges that people will inevitably make mistakes and focuses on reducing the severity of crashes when those mistakes occur. This includes redesigning streets, implementing traffic calming measures like roundabouts and speed bumps, and increasing crosswalk visibility.[iv] The U.S. Department of Transportation has called for all levels of state and local governments and agencies to implement this type of Safe Systems approach [v]

While the methodology has evolved, the overall goal of zero traffic deaths has not changed. As we reach the ten-year mark of Vision Zero, this report reviews trends in fatalities on our streets compared with nationwide figures.

Circulate San Diego analyzed ten years of data from the California Statewide Integrated Traffic Records System (SWITRS) using the Transportation Injury Mapping System (TIMS).

The data shows that although the City of San Diego has substantially improved its approach, there has not been a significant reduction in traffic deaths. This appears to be due to nationwide trends that have increased fatalities, as well as resource constraints that have prevented the City from implementing a more extensive street redesign effort.

A National Tide of Increased Traffic Fatalities Has Neutralized Progress In San Diego.

Nationally, Pedestrian and Cyclist Deaths Have Doubled

Our nation’s streets are becoming more dangerous for everyone. The situation is three times worse for pedestrians. From 2010 through 2021, the Governors Highway Safety Association found a 77% increase in pedestrian traffic fatalities, while traffic deaths for drivers and passengers increased by 25%.[vi]

Nationally, pedestrian fatalities steadily increased each year between 2010 and 2023. Notably, this rise in fatalities cannot be attributed solely to more driving, as pedestrian fatalities have increased per mile driven.[vii] This data is illustrated in Chart 1.These figures even increased in the pandemic year of 2020, when overall traffic volume dropped significantly.

Chart 1, showing nationwide traffic fatalities to pedestrians per mile driven has increased substantially.

Source: Chart created by Circulate San Diego based on data from Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS): 2010-2021 Final File and 2022 Annual Report File (ARF) available athttps://www.nhtsa.gov/crash-data-systems/fatality-analysis-reporting-system. (Last visited October 28, 2024)

When pedestrians were involved in crashes, they were more likely to be killed. In 2010, for every 100 pedestrians injured in a car crash, four were killed. By 2022, that number had risen to eight.

At the same time, reported injuries remained relatively flat. This shows that the problem issue was not more frequent incidents, but rather that each incident is more likely to be fatal. [viii]This data is illustrated in Chart 2.

Chart 2, showing nationwide traffic fatalities to pedestrians have doubled while crashes remain relatively flat.

Source: Chart created by Circulate San Diego based on data from US Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Association Fatality and Injury Reporting System. Available athttps://cdan.dot.gov/query. (Last visited October 28, 2024)

Deaths Continue To Rise In San Diego, But Less Than Nationally.

In San Diego, while fatalities continue to rise, the rate of increase in San Diego is notably lower than the national average. While this is no cause for celebration, it is commendable that San Diego’s efforts have at least mitigated the more severe national trend.

From 2012 to 2023, while the number of crashes in San Diego involving pedestrians remained flat, the number of fatalities increased steadily.[ix] This data is illustrated in Chart 3.Cyclists experienced a similar trend.[x] This reflects the similar national patterns noted above.

Chart 3, showing pedestrian deaths rising since 2012, even as crashes remain relatively flat.

Source: Chart created by Circulate San Diego based on data from California Statewide Integrated Traffic Records System (SWITRS), retrieved from Transportation Injury Mapping System at University of California Berkeley, publicly searchable at https://tims.berkeley.edu/. (Data from 2022 and 2023 remains provisional) (Last Visited October 28, 2024)

This increase in deaths is similar both when taking all pedestrian and cyclist deaths into account, and when analyzing only deaths on city-administrated streets and state-administrated rights of way – as reported by the City of San Diego on its Vision Zero website.[xi] Data from roads that the City of San Diego considers to be city roads are illustrated in Chart 4.

Chart 4, showing traffic fatalities to non-motorists such as pedestrians and cyclists have generally risen in San Diego from 2014 to 2022.

Source: Chart created by Circulate San Diego based on data from City of San Diego’s website, “Vision Zero Data and Information” available at https://www.sandiego.gov/vision-zero/data-information, (last visited October 28, 2024)

While the state and local data sets vary by very small amounts in any particular year, all of the data sets point to the same general increase in non-motorist traffic deaths in the past decade.

Possible Explanations For Increased Deaths

Overall, the picture arises of promising efforts by the City, muted by daunting national trends. Many theories have been floated for these trends, but none definitively proven. Some of those are below. But no matter what the cause, San Diego must still continue to work towards Vision Zero.

Bigger Cars

The shift towards larger vehicles, such as SUVs and trucks, poses greater risks to pedestrians. A 2023 study by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety examined 17,897 crashes involving pedestrians. It found that taller vehicles with more vertical front grilles resulted in substantially higher fatalities than smaller, lower vehicles. Specifically, vertical grilles over 40 inches tall resulted in 45% more deaths.[xii] Recent analysis also shows that larger vehicles, despite frequently being marketed as safer, actually cause more deaths than they prevent.[xiii]

Smartphones

While smartphone usage has become widespread over the past decade and a half, there does not appear to be enough hard data to definitively link the increase in pedestrian deaths to either distracted driving or distracted walking. As a report from the Governor’s Highway Safety Association observed, “there is a lack of evidence to establish a definitive link.” [xiv] Other researchers note that smartphone use is a global trend, whereas the increase in pedestrian deaths has been concentrated in the U.S.[xv] This suggests other factors may be driving the rise in fatalities.

Speed And Acceleration

Faster cars are more likely to kill people. A pedestrian is two and a half times more likely to be killed by a car going 32 mph compared to 23 mph, and twice as likely to be killed by a car going 42mph compared to 32mph.[xvi] Faster drivers have less time to react to a pedestrian in the road, increasing the overall risk of crashes. These problems are exacerbated by the advent of more powerful engines and more quickly accelerating cars in recent years.

Unfortunately, San Diego’s data on the role of speed in pedestrian crashes is inconclusive. Police rarely issue citations for speeding in pedestrian-involved injury crashes (less than 5% of crashes).[xvii] However, since officers typically arrive after the incident, they may be reluctant to issue such citations due to the difficulty of proving a speeding violation after the fact. As such, the absence of a speeding citation does not necessarily mean that speed was not a factor. Nationwide research suggests that speeding has been a more frequent factor in pedestrian deaths in recent years, particularly during the pandemic.[xviii]

Darkness and Visibility

Poor visibility and inadequate street lighting contribute to higher rates of pedestrian injuries from crashes. Although there are substantially more pedestrians during the day, nearly half of pedestrian-car crashes in San Diego occur between dusk and dawn.[xix] One contributing factor is alcohol—over a quarter of incidents during dark hours involve alcohol, compared to less than 7% of incidents during daylight hours.[xx] However, even when alcohol is not a factor, crashes during dark hours still account for more than 40% of total pedestrian injuries. The impact is even more pronounced for fatalities, with nearly three-quarters of pedestrian deaths occurring during dark hours.[xxi] These figures remained consistent between 2012 and 2021, indicating potential for improving outcomes by addressing the distribution and quality of street lighting at night.

Pandemic Effects on the Data

The COVID-19 pandemic drastically reduced vehicle miles traveled in 2020. However, despite fewer cars on the road, pedestrian fatalities remained high. Emptier streets led to increased speeding and reckless driving, resulting in more fatal crashes per mile driven. In 2021 and 2022, both fatalities and injuries spiked above pre-pandemic levels as drivers returned to the roads—often driving more recklessly. Provisional data from 2023 and 2024 suggests a return to previous patterns, with crashes holding steady but becoming more severe. [xxii]

San Diego’s Vision Zero Efforts Since 2015.

Since committing to Vision Zero in 2015, the City has implemented numerous improvements, including significant enhancements to the bicycle network, a greater focus on separated bike lanes, and improvements to intersections such as bulb-outs, daylighting, and disability compliance. The next section highlights some of the most promising changes, which show a broad re-evaluation of road safety.

Complete Streets

The City of San Diego has adopted a commendable Complete Streets Policy—one of the original recommendations from Circulate San Diego’s 2015 Vision Zero report.[xxiii] The policy aims to make roads safer for all users, including pedestrians, cyclists, and drivers.[xxiv] To support this, the City Council has instructed the Transportation Department to update its Street Design Manual in accordance with the most up-to-date national standards.[xxv]

Quick Build Program

The City has accelerated the deployment of safety improvements through quick-build improvements. Circulate has praised these efforts, including the 2021 creation of the Safe and Sustainable Transportation All Ages and Abilities Team (STAT team)[xxvi] The City describes “quick-build projects” as those “where materials are easily installed and modified as necessary in response to any changes or issues that may arise.”[xxvii] The quick build approach delivers immediate safety improvements at a low cost by using cheap materials, like flex posts and paint.[xxviii] This prioritizes rapid and cost-effective installation of improvements. The City has also found external grant funding to supplement the constrained city budget.[xxix] Though the quick-build program's scope has been limited, the City Council continues to seek ways to expand it.[xxx]

PHOTO - “Quick-Builds” don’t just have to be paint and flex-posts. This roundabout at Florida Ave and Morley Field Drive was a quick- build project in 2022.

Photo source: Circulate San Diego

Improved Transparency and Data Analysis

The City has demonstrated a commitment to a data-driven safety improvements through public analysis of crash data. Key reports like the 2019 Systemic Safety Injury Report[xxxi] and the more recent Systemic Safety Analysis of July 2024, helped prioritize interventions based on the areas of highest need and fatalities.[xxxii] San Diego’s data-driven prioritization system for safety improvements has been helpful in directing resources where they are most needed.

However, even with improved prioritization, the City has not consistently made enough resources available to improve the intersections where the most people are killed – known as the “Fatal Fifteen.”[xxxiii] Advocates for street safety have pushed the City, sometimes successfully,[xxxiv] to fund those improvements. But a more thorough approach would involve funding the full suite of known dangerous intersections up to and including those Fatal Fifteen that have caused the most fatalities in the past. This would require a significantly higher dedication of resources.

Shift to the Safe Systems Paradigm

San Diego initially focused its Vision Zero programs on the "Three E’s"—Engineering, Education, and Enforcement. This approach assumed that road users could be trained or deterred into safer behavior.

More recently, the City has shifted toward a Safe Systems paradigm, which assumes that some road users will make mistakes and seeks to reduce the number and severity of injuries and deaths from those mistakes.[xxxv] This shift aligns with best practices recommended by the U.S. Department of Transportation[xxxvi] and is a more effective strategy for achieving Vision Zero.

This paradigm shift is commendable and wise. Engineering, education and enforcement remain necessary elements to keeping streets safe, and Safe Systems does beneficial work by framing these elements in a larger and more appropriate context. For example, eliminating some dangers still requires enforcement of traffic laws.

There is a perception—grounded in generations of reality—that increased traffic enforcement can exacerbate racial and economic inequalities in our communities. But inequalities also exist among victims of pedestrian fatalities. For example, Black San Diegans are almost twice as likely to be killed as pedestrians compared to other groups, while White and Asian San Diegans are less likely to be fatally struck while walking.[xxxvii] For injuries, these disparities are even more pronounced.

San Diego faces a challenge – reducing inequities in pedestrian fatalities without risking additional inequities via disparate enforcement. San Diego might investigate new ideas for equitable enforcement mechanisms. This might include emerging technologies such as speed and red-light cameras, which some studies suggest can substantially reduce disparities in traffic enforcement.[xxxviii] San Diego has already begun a limited installation of this technology.[xxxix]

Another such emerging solution is bus-mounted enforcement cameras, which enhance pedestrian and cyclist safety by reducing illegal parking in bus stops and lanes. A Philadelphia study found over 32,000 obstructions in 70 days, forcing buses to load passengers in traffic and endangering those with disabilities who rely on curb access for wheelchair ramps.[xl] In New York, similar systems reduced collisions by 20%[xli]. Such emerging technologies may decrease unsafe driving generally, but also reduce the prevalence of hit-and-run incidents, which have accounted for just over a fifth of San Diego’s pedestrian and cyclist fatalities since 2012.[xlii]

Complete Streets, Quick Builds, Better Data, and the Safe Systems approach have combined to help San Diego limit its losses in pedestrian safety, despite daunting national trends. However, substantial room for improvement remains. This will require not just better policies but also a commitment of substantial financial resources.

San Diego has made significant investments toward its Vision Zero goals.[xliii] While these investments have shown promising results, the rise in pedestrian deaths indicates that more targeted action is needed.

Recommendations for Further Action

Dramatically Increased Investment

San Diego’s approach to planning its built infrastructure is promising. But those plans will mean little without substantially more money to implement them.

Weighing the Cost of Action vs. Inaction

• Consider the broader economic and human costs of inaction. This obviously includes the pain and suffering of injuries and deaths. But it also includes measurable financial cost in terms of medical bills, increased insurance costs, damage to property, and productivity lost to injuries and fatalities. A study in New York found that Vision Zero initiatives reduced total Medicaid costs for injury treatment by over $100M per year.[xliv] Caltrans estimates the direct liability for a fatal or severe injury crash at a non-signalized intersection is $3,440,000.[xlv] The costs of improving our streets are lower than the cost of leaving them unsafe.

Equitable Enforcement

• Explore and expand emerging traffic enforcement technologies such as speed and red-light and bus-mounted cameras that may help make streets safer while minimizing any inequalities that may arise from other traffic enforcement methods.

Cost Reduction

• Streamline processes to reduce the cost of pedestrian safety improvements, allowing for wider deployment of quick-build solutions.

Conclusion

San Diego has made important strides toward improving pedestrian safety since committing to Vision Zero in 2015. However, the rising trend of pedestrian fatalities shows that the current pace of intervention is not enough. To achieve Vision Zero, the City will have to find faster and cheaper solutions, while dramatically increasing resources dedicated to safer streets. San Diego must act now – and act aggressively – to ensure safer streets for all.

Acknowledgments

Will Moore, Lead Author

Policy Counsel, Circulate San Diego

Will Moore is a graduate of Columbia Law and Georgia Tech. Before joining Circulate, he practiced law for 21 years, representing small and mid-sized businesses. Will has lived in San Diego since 2006 and has long been an advocate for expanding housing and transit opportunities. Will is a Civil Service Commissioner for the City of San Diego. He lives with two of his three children and his wife in San Diego’s historic Old Town neighborhood. His young-adult son is experiencing the housing crisis first hand in Santa Cruz, where he lives with four other students in a very small three-bedroom apartment.

Special Thanks

The content of this report was informed by the expertise and feedback from an advisory committee, who we thank for their assistance. The advisory committee included Laura Keenan, Angelica Rocha, Pualani Vazquez, Mary Beth Moran, Paige Colburn-Hargis, Bob Prath, Dan Katz, and Kristin Haukom. Thanks to our many Vision Zero Coalition allies including the AARP, BikeSD, RideSD, the San Diego Bicycle Coalition, UCSD Health, Scripps Health and many others. Special thanks to Families for Safe Streets San Diego, Laura Keenan, Steve Shinn, and Katie Gordon for sharing the stories of their loved ones who were lost to preventable crashes as they walked and biked on San Diego's unsafe streets. Their motivation keeps us all focused.

Thanks to the staff of the City of San Diego Transportation Department for their hard work making our streets safer, and their cooperation in helping research this report.

Special thanks to Circulate’s Board of Directors and staff, particularly Octavio Garcia for creating the publication that you see here; Circulate’s Planning team members Carlisle Dockery, Octavio Garcia, Maria Walker, Cierra Johnson and Leslie Aparicio for providing technical expertise that makes Circulate’s policy reports possible; Davida Garcia for administrative support; Colin Parent for his invaluable leadership and the untold sacrifices he makes for his community; and Jeremy Bloom for managing this project in his role as interim CEO over the past several months.

About Circulate San Diego

Circulate San Diego is a nonprofit think tank whose mission is to create excellent mobility choices and vibrant, healthy neighborhoods. Circulate promotes public transit, safe streets, and sustainable growth. Circulate has successfully led campaigns to transform empty parking lots into affordable homes, to implement free transfers for transit riders, and for local jurisdictions to adopt Vision Zero to end traffic fatalities and serious injuries.

For more information, visit www.circulatesd.org.